Trends and market context

Pursuing its development tasks, PSE has been preparing the Development Plan for meeting the current and future electricity demand (hereinafter: PRSP), which is aimed, among other things, to devise an investment plan adequate to the market needs, containing investment projects over a ten-year timespan.

The main aspects taken into account PRSP creation process are the current and forecasted electric capacity and energy supply and demand, and the security of electricity supply, taking into account the conditions set forth in the Energy Law.

The Transmission Network Development Plan (PRSP) sets forth the transmission network development projects which, when completed, are expected to meet long-term national capacity and energy demand. The main factors affecting the direction of transmission network development include growth of electricity demand, development of generating sources and the need to expand cross-border interconnections.

The domestic generating sector is undergoing transformation and a future energy mix for Poland has not been defined by the time this document is prepared. The experience so far shows that under the existing legal and regulatory framework generating undertakings find it difficult to find an economic justification for the construction of new generating capacities. For this reason, in December 2017, the capacity market mechanism was introduced in Poland, which will enable investors to take decisions on the construction of new generating capacities in Poland. It must be emphasised, however, that in 2016-2017 a new coal-fired unit was commissioned at the Kozienice Power Plant as well as a new combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) unit in Płock, which would improve the resources of the Polish generating sector by approx. 1680 MW..

We expect that the factors that will contribute to changes in the PPS operational management in the future are:

• functioning of energy clusters,
• energy storage (both large-scale, and at final consumer locations),
• conscious community energy generation.

The intermittent RES development witnessed is becoming an increasingly great challenge in the power system operation process and poses the need to use energy storage facilities. PSE conducts analyses relating to recommended locations, taking into account network infrastructure and broad-based system considerations.

What will be of major significance in the future is a further development of the Smart Grid technology and advanced metering, which will allow innovative solutions to be applied for Demand Side Management (DSM) and Demand Side Response (DSR).

The PPS operating conditions will also be affected by electromobility, with a special focus on vehicle charging considerations and the use of the Vehicle to Grid technology.

There is an increasing interest among investors in building offshore wind farms. According to the current legal situation, responsibility for the deployment of infrastructure bringing offshore power to onshore grids rests with investors. PSE does not rule out that in the event a substantial volume of offshore wind farm capacity is installed, it could assume the role of offshore network operator. However, this would require relevant legislative arrangements. In this context, it would be important for PSE and investors to coordinate the location of the infrastructure bringing power from individual wind farms onshore and relevant technical solutions.

The E-Mobility Development Plan adopted by the Council of Ministers on 16 March 2017 sets the indicative target of 1 million electric vehicles in Poland by 2025. The achievement of this target will involve additional demand for electric capacity and energy, and the need to create appropriate conditions for the development of e-mobility. The development of e-mobility is also an opportunity for the development of energy storage systems.

PSE plans and conducts ongoing activities including analyses of expected electric power and energy requirements, generated by the developing e-mobility sector in Poland. The activities presented fall in line with long-term forecasting which is aimed at the dimensioning of the needs of the Polish Power System both in terms of adequacy of generating sources and network requirements.

The following are analysed as part of those activities:

• technical assumptions concerning the development of e-mobility technologies,
• the PPS operation conditions related to the charging of electric vehicles.

The driving factors behind the development rate of the e-mobility market will also be defined, as well as possible scenarios for the development of the market in Poland.

The scenarios analysed allow the increase in the number of electric vehicles used in Poland in private and public transport to be estimated and their impact on the capacity and energy balance to be determined.

PSE has identified mechanisms, the implementation of which could enable the management of increased demand for electric capacity and energy resulting from the development of electromobility. The main purpose of these mechanisms will be to stimulate the processes of charging vehicles in such a way that, while maximising functionalities for electric car users, an optimal pattern of the demand curve for power generated by electric vehicles is ensured.

The implementation of the electricity market in Europe began in 1996 when the First Energy Package was published. The Package introduced competition rules to the electricity generation and trading segment. The regulations contained in the package were refined twice, by the Second and Third Energy Packages.

The Third Package also introduced the concept of Network Codes as European legislation at the level of regulation, i.e. legislation applicable directly in the Member States, with no need to be implemented in national law. The network codes set out the rules for the operation of interconnected European power systems in a competitive environment.

In the course of further work, which involved all key industry organisations of the power sector, including ENSTO-E, EURELECTRIC (generators), EFET (traders), ERGEG (regulators) and the European Commission, a concept of the target model for Europe was developed. The concept introduced solutions based on the Market Coupling mechanism and the Flow-Based methodology as arrangements recommended in the capacity allocation process.v

The structure of the European electricity market was also defined, which covered the following segments:

• Forward Market;
• Day-Ahead Market;
• Intraday Market;
• Cross-Border Balancing Market.

The pillars of the target model of the European electricity market are as follows:

• Zonal model of power system representation;
• Flow Based Market Coupling (FBMC) as the basis for capacity calculation and allocation.

What is particularly noteworthy is the separation of the FBMC functions of capacity calculation and allocation between system operators – with regard to transmission capacity calculation, and energy exchanges.

In the course of discussions held on various forums concerning possible directions towards detailed solutions, PSE has often shared its views on the organisation of the electricity market.

The European energy market model introduces a zone verification procedure under which the so-called bidding zone study will be performed every three years to evaluate for validity of the existing zones and redefine them where required. In March 2018, the first trial run of the process was carried out. The study covered the Central Europe area (CORE+ region) and proved to be a great challenge for the TSOs participating in the study. Consequently, the study did not provide sufficient arguments to recommend the retention or modification of the present configuration of bidding zones.

Currently another review of bidding zones in Europe is in the pipeline. In accordance with Article 14(5) of Regulation 2019/943, by 5 October 2019 all relevant transmission system operators submitted a proposal for the methodology and assumptions that are to be used in the bidding zone review process and for the alternative bidding zone configurations to be considered to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval. The relevant regulatory authorities shall take a unanimous decision on the proposal within 3 months of submission of the proposal. Where the regulatory authorities are unable to reach a unanimous decision on the proposal within that time frame, ACER shall, within an additional three months, decide on the methodology and assumptions and the alternative bidding zone configurations to be considered. In the next step, and on the basis of the approved methodology, the transmission system operators participating in the bidding zone review shall submit a joint proposal to the relevant Member States or their designated competent authorities to amend or maintain the bidding zone configuration.

The smaller the zone size:

• the better conditions for representing correct electricity prices – which provides correct price signals for market participants, supporting the increase in the efficiency of the use of generating sources and the so-called active demand side. Correct price signals also support investment decisions concerning the location of new generating sources and development of the transmission system;
• the greater capacity available to market participants on competitive terms – which supports the increase in the efficiency of network use.

More accurate representation of the network in market processes, achieved owing to smaller zones, a better fulfilment of the conditions of electricity supply security within the framework of commercial transactions. This limits the scope and cost of the remedial actions taken by system operators to meet security criteria. As a result, electricity prices reflect more accurately the actual cost of electricity supply, thus reducing the cost of energy supply for the purposes of remedial actions, covered by transmission tariffs. Consequently, the costs of electricity borne by consumers can be subjected to competitive pressure to a greater extent.

In the electricity market, the incentives that support the ability of generating sources to meet the above requirements are mainly created by two prices:

• electricity price,
• capacity reserve price.

The first one determines payment for the generating capacity used to generate electricity. The other one determines the payment for capacity representing surplus power necessary to ensure the security of energy supply. Due to the volume of generation capacity to which these prices apply, the electricity price is of fundamental importance in terms of the impact on the level of generation capacity. Payments for generated energy are the main source of financing the maintenance and operation costs of generating sources. From the point of view of the effectiveness and quality of price signals, the price of reserve power plays a leading role because shortages in available generating capacity become first visible in a lack of reserve capacity. This is despite the fact that the capacity reserve price serves to account for only a small volume of generating capacity.

Price formation in a way that creates such incentives is especially important in the balancing market, i.e. during electricity supply. Thanks to this, market participants – through energy prices – receive information about the real and full costs of electricity supply. Prices formed this way may be highly volatile as they reflect the dynamic situation in the system and therefore provide incentives for voluntary trading to hedge the value of these prices in the medium and long term. Owing to such transactions, on the one hand, values of electricity prices for consumers are stabilised, while, on the other hand, the development of generation resources is supported.

In the price formation process, consumers with the capability to flexibly respond with their electricity consumption play a key role. Such consumers’ bids should be treated according to the same rules as those applicable to generating sources, but they have a much wider role to play. They carry information on the price level at which energy supply is no longer justified in terms of benefits for the consumer resulting from consumption. Therefore, access to those bids makes it possible to rationalise electricity prices having regard to its utility to consumers, and thus to rationalise the current level of electricity supply and the development of generating resources

Despite those common features, the concept of the European electricity market implies separate treatment of both products in market processes. Electric energy is sold and purchased by market participants on exchange markets and through bilateral transactions. The acquisition of reserve capacity remains the domain of system operators. Separation of these products results from the approach forced through in Europe for many years, based on the assumption that technical issues, including in particular the provision of required levels of reserve capacity, should be separated from electricity trading. This view was driven by the simplicity of electricity trading, desired by market participants, analogous to other market commodities.

An alternative to the current organisation of market processes is the integrated acquisition of electricity and reserve power within a single market process. In order to eliminate – or at least significantly reduce – the need for redispatching, market processes should be performed based on an accurate representation of network resources. With this approach, the potential of sources can be effectively allocated to the supply of electrical energy or reserve power, depending on where it brings more value, and thus contributes more to reducing the cost of electricity delivery to consumers. On the other hand, a detailed representation of the network ensures the technical feasibility of commercial transactions while allowing optimal allocation of transmission capacity for the performance of commercial transactions.

As a result, the requirements of security of energy supply are reflected in energy prices, which is the basis for its correct pricing. Such a model meets the cost effectiveness criteria mentioned before, including pricing accuracy and security criteria.

The role of the DAM is to:

• create electricity prices for contracts concluded in the wholesale electricity market in Poland;
• provide the capability for balancing contract positions;
• allow the valuation of enterprises that deal mainly with electricity generation;
• generate investment signals for building new generation units.

Quotations are made on the DAM every day, including holidays. Trading is carried out one day ahead of the day on which physical delivery of energy is planned. The minimum order volume is 1 MWh. The day-ahead market consists of 24-hour markets and block contracts of three types.

• BASE – provides for the delivery of 1 MWh of electric energy in each hour of the day;
• PEAK – provides for the delivery of 1 MWh of electric energy between 8:00 and 22:00 hours;
• OFFPEAK – provides for the delivery of 1 MWh of electric energy between 23:00 and 7:00 hours.

The exchange clearing price for a given hour is taken to be a price at which a balance is achieved between demand and supply, i.e. the point where the demand and supply curves intersect.

Participants of the competitive electricity market increasingly often opt for transactions in the day-ahead market, thus choosing current transactions instead of long-term contracts. The reason for market participants’ growing interest in current transactions is the fact that the market responds dynamically to the customer's needs. In addition, transaction made on the DAM yield higher financial benefits than transactions made in forward markets.

In the context of the planned integration of the national electricity markets, the main implementation measures are centred around the implementation of the common market encompassing the day-ahead and intraday markets. PSE actively participates in all processes related to the implementation of Market Coupling on all cross-border interconnections from Poland, with a special focus on synchronous connections.

The central segment of the European electricity market model is to be the day-ahead market based on the Market Coupling (MC) process, with trading gate closure time at 12:00 hours. It is a mechanism within which exchange prices for each bidding zone in Europe can be calculated in a coordinated manner, in a common process, with a single computational point. Capacity allocation is to be based on the price difference between bidding zones. Thus it is an implicitauction model, i.e. auctions that combine transmission rights trading with electricity trading. Market participants do not reserve transmission capacity for the purposes of their cross-border transactions, and they only make purchase/sale transactions on the market to which they are geographically assigned (to put it simply). Capacity allocation through the MC mechanism takes place automatically, in the course of energy trading in a manner that maximises the total market surplus. A graphical illustration of Market Coupling is shown below.

Implementation of the European Market Coupling is to take place under regional projects which are then to merge into a pan-European project. Currently, the following projects are being developed:

• MRC (Multi-Regional Coupling) – the basic Market Coupling initiative in Europe;
• CORE FB MC – a project of the Central-East Europe region;
• 4M MC – Market Coupling operating in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania;
• DE-AT-PL-4M MC Project (Interim Coupling) – implementation of NTC-based interim Market Coupling in Poland, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

The market coupling mechanism covers two DC borders of the Polish bidding zone, i.e. the cross-border interconnection between Poland and Sweden (LitPol Link).

In December 2018, the regulatory authorities of Poland, Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania initiated the implementation of the DE-AT-PL-4M MC Interim Coupling Project prior to the implementation of the target Flow-Based Market Coupling (FB MC) Project. Thus the accession to and participation in the Interim Coupling Project has become obligatory for TSOs and nominated electricity market operators (NEMOs). The objective of the Interim Coupling Project is to accelerate the implementation of market coupling (MC) and Multi Regional Coupling (MRC) and 4M (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania) coupling based on the NTC approach, which should lead to an improved social welfare in Europe. The Interim Coupling Project will allow the market coupling mechanism to be expanded also by synchronous borders, i.e. the Polish-Czech, Polish-Slovakian, and Polish-German borders, which should take place in the latter part of 2020.

Price Coupling of Regions (PCR) is the initiative to develop a single price coupling solution to be used to calculate electricity prices across Europe and allocate cross-border capacity on a day-ahead basis. Such integrated European electricity market is expected to increase liquidity, efficiency and social welfare.

PCR is based on three main principles:

1. One single algorithm. The single algorithm gives a fair and transparent determination of day-ahead electricity prices across Europe and allocates cross-border capacity. The algorithm was developed respecting the specific features of the various power markets across Europe. It optimises the overall welfare and increases transparency.
2. Reliable operation of the algorithm. The PCR process is based on decentralised sharing of data, ensuring a robust and resilient operation.
3. Individual responsibility of energy exchange. The PCR Matcher Broker (PMB) allows the exchange of anonymised order books and cross-border transmission capacities among the exchanges to calculate reference prices and electricity transmission volumes between all bidding zones.

The PCR initiative was created in 2009. Its originators were 7 European energy exchanges: APX, Belpex, EPEX SPOT, GME, Nord Pool Spot, OMIE and OTE. A cooperation agreement was signed in June 2012. Initially, the initiative of energy exchanges involved the day-ahead electricity markets in: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Currently PCR is open to other European power exchanges wishing to join it. In 2016, the initiative was joined by the Polish power exchange TGE.

Since 2008, PSE has participated in activities in coordination with ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity), operating pursuant to Regulation of the EP and the Council (EC) No 714/2009 of 13 July 2009. The objective of the organisation is to promote reliable operation, optimal management and sustainable development of the pan-European electric power transmission system to ensure the security of supply and satisfy the needs of the internal energy market.

ENTSO-E is governed by the General Meeting and the activities of the organisation are managed by the Board. The working structure of ENTSO-E consists of the committees: Market Committee, System Development Committee, System Operation Committee, Research, Development & Innovation Committee, Digital Committee, and the Legal and Regulatory Group acting on a committee basis. The committees are composed of working groups implementing tasks of a pan-European nature and regional groups responsible mainly for tasks specific to individual regions, including the operation of interconnected power systems. ENTSO-E also fulfils a number of obligations resulting from the third legislative package: it develops network codes, approves a 10-year plan for the development of a pan-European power network together with the European generation adequacy forecast, and implements recommendations on the coordination of technical cooperation between EU operators and operators from third countries. Adopting a common position, ENTSO-E is the only organisation to represent the operators in relations with stakeholders, including institutions and bodies of the European Union and the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).

PSE is one of the 43 TSOs from 36 countries in Europe, members of the organisation. The presence of PSE’s specialists in the ENTSO-E structures strengthens the position of the Polish transmission system operator on the global stage.

Poland is included in three capacity calculation regions (CCRs): CORE, Baltic and Hansa, established under a decision of the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) in November 2016 on the proposal of all TSOs. Through the working structures of the above-mentioned regions, representatives of the individual TSOs, including PSE, carry on work aimed to implement market mechanisms whose design will ensure the capability for efficient, unconstrained and secure cross-border commercial exchange. The activities cover all market segments – from long-term markets, , through the day-ahead market (in the form of market coupling), to the intraday market – and they involve, among other things, the implementation of a coordinated process of capacity calculation, including the allocation of costs of remedial actions used in the process and implementation of the Market Coupling mechanism on the PPS interconnections.

We actively cooperate with European operators under the TSO Security Cooperation (TSC)initiative. The members of the TSC are 15 operators from Central Europe. The objective and main pillar of activity under the initiative is to increase the operational security of interconnected power systems, including PSE, through the intensification of regional inter-TSO cooperation, which currently involves threat identification processes and the use of relevant inter-TSO remedial measures. The key issues concerning the TSC initiative, including the strategy and directions of development, are decided upon by the TSC Cooperation Boardwhose Vice-Chairman is the President of the Management Board of PSE. Technical operational matters are the responsibility of the TSC Operational Board,on which PSE has its representative. A dozen or so representatives of our company are involved in activities resulting from the responsibilities of the TSC working structures.

PSE also participates in:

• CEE Forum (Central Eastern European Forum for Electricity Market Integration) – a forum established to provided political support in the electricity markets integration process;
• CIGRE (French Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Électriques) – the world’s largest international association grouping together experts dealing with electricity generation, transmission and distribution issues. In coordination with the association, we work on promoting innovations and new solutions in the power sector through cooperation between business and the academy);
• CEEP (Central Europe Energy Partners) – an international non-profit association representing the Central European energy sector, whose objective is to support the integration of the Central European energy sector within the framework of the EU common energy and security policy. The Chairman of the CEEP Board of Directors is a representative of PSE.

PSE’s international cooperation includes not only work in the organisations and initiatives mentioned. We are also active under many international projects, such as SIDC (also known as XBID), SDAC (formerly MRC) and other projects implementing the provisions of network codes and EC guidelines.